There are only four countries in the world that have the right to recall lawmakers. Except for Taiwan, the other three - Ecuador, Venezuela, and Cuba - are all in the Americas. There are 25 recall cases in Taiwan's vote on July 26, 2025 and there are 7 completed recall cases to be voted on on August 23. The scale is unprecedented. Taiwan's previous recalls were all case-by-case, such as Huang Guochang (黃國昌, 2017, failed), Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜, 2020, recalled successfully), Chen Baiwei (陳柏惟, 2021, recalled successfully), Huang Jie (黃捷 ,2021, failed), Lin Changzuo (林昶佐, 2022, failed). This year is different. A large number of people will be recalled, all of whom are the lawmakers of the Blue and White Camp in northern, central and eastern Taiwan.
The recall vote on July 26th was shocking: 25 to 0, meaning no one was impeached. Many were stunned. A careful analysis of the vote counts in each district reveals the following political realities regarding recalls in Taiwan:
1. Getting the recall case approved is difficult, but not extremely difficult.:Is it difficult to get 10% of the total electorate to sign a petition? Absolutely, it's quite difficult, because in some constituencies, 10% requires 20,000 to 30,000 valid signatures. The fact that recall group volunteers can get it done, while the Kuomintang (KMT) can't, shows the level of difficulty. However, if a legislator from one party acts too outrageously, a significant portion of the 30-40% electorate from the other party in the constituency will likely sign the petition. Therefore, achieving the 10% signature target isn't entirely impossible. The recall group volunteers persevered and worked tirelessly, finally completing 32 cases.
2. The DPP's embarrassing situation:The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has many experienced candidates in legislative elections, and they all know how difficult it is to recall the top-ranked legislator in each constituency. The DPP is also deeply distressed by the chaos in the Legislative Yuan (立法院). Therefore, they are very pleased to see the enthusiastic petitions initiated by the recall volunteers. However, as the ruling party, it would be unreasonable not to encourage or help the recall activities. Yet, to fully support and sponsor the recall effort would be against the DPP's DNA—they don't want to give the sharp-tongued Kuomintang (KMT) any reason to accuse the ruling party of being a sore loser and launching a political infighting to bring down KMT legislators. The DPP's somewhat detached attitude, born out of this awkward situation, plays right into the hands of the KMT.
3. In seven cases, the number of "yes" votes exceeded the threshold.:Thanks to the tireless efforts of the recall volunteers, in 7 out of 25 cases, the number of votes in favor of recall exceeded the 25% threshold (Wang Hongwei王鴻薇, Li Yanxiu李彥秀, Xu Qiaoxin徐巧芯, Ye Yuanzhi葉元之, Zheng Zhengqian鄭正鈐, Luo Tingwei羅廷瑋, and Fu Kunqi傅崐萁). If it weren't for the fact that the number of "disapproval votes" exceeded the number of "approval votes," these 7 people would have been recalled. What saved them was the overwhelming number of disapproval votes.
4. In each district, the number of votes against the recall exceeded the number of votes in favor of the recall.:All 25 constituencies are the same. It should be noted that these KMT legislators who will be elected in 2024 already have the advantage of a majority of voters; they are all the top performers in their respective constituencies. In the 2025 recall election, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP民眾黨) supporters in the original constituencies, now without their original TPP candidates, have poured their votes into the "no recall" vote. Coupled with the KMT's base enthusiastically voting, the momentum is unstoppable, overwhelming the "yes" vote. Five legislators even received more than 50% of the "yes" vote (Huang Chien-pin黃建賓, Lu Yu-ling呂玉玲, Lin Te-fu林德福, Lu Ming-che魯明哲, and Lai Shih-pao賴士葆). Furthermore, eight legislators received more "no" votes on July 26th than they did in 2024 (Chang Chih-lun張智倫, Lu Ming-che魯明哲, Lu Yu-ling呂玉玲, Chiu Jo-hua邱若華, Cheng Cheng-chien鄭正钤, Kao Hung-an高虹安, Huang Chien-pin黃建賓, and Lin Pei-hsiang林沛祥. Huang Chien-pin's黃建賓 35% lead is the most significant; he absorbed most of Liu Chao-hao's劉櫂豪 votes). This demonstrates that TPP supporters are firmly aligned with the KMT. This situation is consistent with the alliance among legislators in the Legislative Yuan.
5. The recall voter turnout was between 50% and 60% in each constituency.: The voter turnout for this recall was 56%. All five districts of Taipei City saw turnout rates approaching 60%.
6. Compared to the voting enthusiasm in 2024, the decline in voting enthusiasm among the pro-independence camp this year is clearly more severe than that among the pro-unification and pro-unification camps.:Comparing the support votes for both camps in 2024 and 2025 reveals a decline in total support: the KMT-TPP camp dropped to 89%, and the DPP to 84%. This indicates that over 10% of supporters from both camps in 2024 were not interested in the recall. Furthermore, in 18 out of 25 cases, the DPP's vote share this year was less than 90% of 2024's, and in 6 cases, it was even less than 80%. Conversely, in only 11 out of 25 cases, the KMT-TPP camp's "disapproval" vote share was less than 90% of the 2024 elected candidate's vote share, and in only 1 case, it was less than 80%. This means that compared to 2024, the KMT-TPP camp's enthusiasm in 2025 remains relatively strong, while the DPP's is significantly weaker. In fact, even when the enthusiasm of both camps is roughly equal, the DPP will still lose, because the elected candidate's vote share is always higher than the defeated candidate's. Now, their enthusiasm is lacking, and the general recall has to end in nothing. Is this discrepancy in enthusiasm a sign that the "10,000 yuan per person" issue is brewing? It's hard to quantify.
7. There are a multitude of reasons for the recall, but voters in both the KMT and TPP camps won't read them carefully; they're "unmoved" and won't listen.:There are many reasons and demands for the recall, but ordinary people don't have the time or inclination to read them carefully. Therefore, the reasons and demands must be simplified into a powerful and concise phrase that can resonate with voters from all camps. "A major recall, a major success" is a new and concise phrase, but it's unlikely to appeal to voters from either the KMT or TPP camps. "Resist China and protect Taiwan" or "Oppose the Communist Party and protect Taiwan" are also concise phrases, but they've been used for too long, lack novelty, and are unlikely to move people's hearts.
Conclusion:In Taiwanese politics, elections are held frequently, but recalls are rare and usually isolated cases, unlike this year's large-scale recall. Voters' attitudes towards large-scale recalls are unclear. The results of the July 26th election provided some clues and a crucial piece of information: the number of votes against recall easily overwhelmed those in favor. Those who initiate recalls in the future should remember this. In fact, whether it's an election or a recall, the key to election analysis is not to rely solely on echo chambers, but to carefully read and follow news from both the DPP and KMT camps to accurately grasp the dynamics of the voters and develop appropriate strategies. This prevents "out-of-the-box" predictions, such as "all 32 seats will be recalled" or "the number of successful recalls will be at least double digits," which are far removed from the actual election results and could give DPP voters the illusion of an easy victory, hindering their voter turnout. (2025-08-04 New Jersey)