The topic of whether the CCP will invade Taiwan has been mentioned in two special lectures recently. One was held at the Good House Evergreen Association (好厝邊長青會) affiliated with Jiatan Church(佳壇教會) in Livingston, NJ on 6/5/2025, and the other was held at the Taiwanese American Conference – East Coast on 7/5/2025. Dr. Chen Tingkai (陳廷楷) was invited by the Good House Evergreen Association to speak on “Talking about the past and the present, are the United States and China destined to fight a war?” He quoted Harvard professor Graham Allison’s book “Destined For War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?”. Allison’s research shows that in 16 historical cases where a rising power challenged a ruling power, 12 of them ultimately led to war (such as Athens vs. Sparta, Germany vs. Britain, Japan vs. China). However, when mutual tolerance and clear communication become priorities, peaceful transitions can also be achieved (such as the United States surpassing Britain in the early 20th century). Among the 16 cases studied, the ninth is the case of Japan vs China. Japan, which rose after the Meiji Restoration, challenged the hegemonic China, which led to the Sino-Japanese War of 1894. This is the result of the basic attitude of China’s worldview: I am the only one who is supreme, and all barbarians must be tributary states, preferably making tribute every year. The Sino-Japanese War of 1894 was fought due to the Donghak Peasant Incident of Korea, a vassal state of China. The great humiliation of China after being defeated by Japan has been deeply rooted in the minds of most Chinese for more than 100 years. They are still resentful and waiting for an opportunity to retaliate. This mentality of supremacy and restoration of former glory is unbreakable. China develops nuclear weapons, expands its navy, hoards missiles, expands its influence everywhere in the UN, and wholeheartedly wants to occupy Taiwan, and the “One Belt, One Road” layout are all moving in the direction of supremacy. The United States is the biggest stumbling block to China’s supremacy and hegemony in the world. It is destined to have a war between the United States and China, but the CCP does not dare to start it at present, and can only make harsh remarks toward the US. Because they are not yet completely sure that they can defeat the United States in one blow (they also know very well the outcome when in the Pearl Harbor incident Japan did not defeat the United States in one blow). When the day comes where the Chinese military force suppresses the United States, a war will break out. At the present time, the CCP continues to expand China’s military force, while also closely evaluating and paying attention to the deployment of various US military forces around the world, such as in Ukraine and the Middle East.
In the Middle East, Israel was almost done with the Gaza Strip fighting. It then suddenly launched a full-scale attack on Iran on 6/13/2025, triggering the “Israel-Iran War”. President Trump told reporters on 6/19 that he would give himself two weeks to consider whether to join the “Israel-Iran War” to attack Iran. What no one expected was that President Trump ordered the US Air Force and Navy to launch the “Midnight Hammer” plan the next day, sending seven stealth B2 bombers from Missouri, each carrying two MOP bombs weighing 14,000 kilograms each, to attack Iran directly, as if entering an unmanned area, and blow up the nuclear weapons facilities hidden deep underground in the mountains. President Trump’s unpredictability and the power and the precision of the US military force shocked the world.
Two weeks later, the Taiwanese American Conference – East Coast was held in Pennsylvania. The organizer invited Gordon Chang (章家敦) to give a speech on July 5, titled “Why the CCP sees Taiwan as an existential threat”. During the Q&A session, I asked Mr. Chang about his views on Allison’s book and whether he thought the US and China were destined to go to war. Mr. Chang has always paid attention to China’s political, economic and geopolitical challenges, and often predicts the instability and collapse of the CCP. Because he believes that the CCP is in decline, China can not be at the level to compete with or challenge the US, he considers the premise that China and the US are on an equal footing as described in Allison’s book is not true, and therefore there is no so-called “Thucydides trap” between China and the US. He does not think there will be a war between these two countries.
Just a few days later, CNN broke the news on July 8 that President Trump declared at a 2024 fundraising event that he had threatened Putin not to invade Ukraine, otherwise the United States would “bomb the s—’ out of Moscow.” He also warned Xi Jinping that if China sent troops to Taiwan, the United States would retaliate with an air strike on Beijing. Trump’s first term as president expired in January 2021, and he handed over power to Biden. So the time to say such words to Putin and Xi Jinping must have been during his first term. Trump’s speech is hard to tell whether it is true or false. Whether such private conversations took place or not, Putin and Xi Jinping have not confirmed. However, from the evolution of history, the Russo-Ukrainian War did not happen during Trump’s first term. But it happened 13 months after he handed over power to Biden. Whether Putin saw Biden as cowardly and easy to bully, but was afraid of Trump’s strength, it’s up to everyone to interprete. But the performance of history is indeed consistent with what Trump said. As for Xi Jinping, he did not attack Taiwan during Trump’s first term as president; during Biden’s term, he also heard Biden’s tough talk several times that the US would send troops to help Taiwan in fighting China. Nobody really knows why Xi Jinping did not launch a war to invade Taiwan. Of course, the reason may be that the time to attack Taiwan in 2027, as openly discussed in media, has not yet arrived, so he is still strengthening preparations for the invasion of Taiwan. But in 2027, Trump will still be in his second term as the US President. Will Xi Jinping send troops to invade Taiwan against the strong and unpredictable Trump? From the above analysis, it seems that Xi Jinping will not. The most likely approach that the CCP would do is to strengthen the bribery of the pro-China factions in Taiwan and help them take power. At the same time, the CCP would uses various propaganda methods to confuse the Taiwanese people, create a pro-China atmosphere, and seize Taiwan by consensus. As long as there are still many voters in Taiwan who sympathize with the blue and white parties, the CCP’s non-military strategy may be effective. During Trump’s second term as president, although the possibility of the CCP’s “military attack” is very small, its non-military strategy would require Taiwan to strengthen its defense in all directions. If the CCP’s non-military strategy does not work for many years, and its “military power” later becomes more powerful than that of the United States, the possibility of its “military invasion of Taiwan” to avenge its previous shame is undoubtedly very high. (2025-07-12 New Jersery)